Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Today's lesson talked about the different methods by which we can forecast and assess technology. We learnt about technology road-mapping and PTAs. We also identified the various drivers of technology assessment. These include limited resources and the exponential growth of new technologies with potential world changing significance.

Just to add on to the point about cultural stickiness: I think many companies today are seeing the importance of taking cultural considerations into account. Anthropologists and ethnographers are finding it easier to find jobs with high-tech companies. I think these companies see the value of using the highly developed skills of anthropologists as observers to study how people live, work and use technology. These anthropologists can understand their users and find new products and markets the engineers never dreamed of. Intel for example, was looking into designing a computer chip that can withstand a blast from a deck hose. Even major technology universities are beginning to recognise the importance of considering cultural implications when forecasting the impact of a certain technology. The University of California, Irvine, and Georgia Tech are some examples of Universities that have included ethnographic training as part of their computer science degree programs.

Science fiction: Often, it is said that science fiction can predict the future and that we use science fiction as inspiration for the future. However, I think the sci-fi stories and scenarios tell us much more about our pasts and our present than it does about the future. The models used by Sci-fi writers have been extrapolated from the present situation using information gathered from past events, and they can be innately flawed because our human brain has its limitations. Even the computer models and mathematical formulas built using rules devised by human brains are equally subject to these shortcomings.  Furthermore, even if the authors' technical predictions are correct, the society is often wrong. Future societies inevitably display the unquestioned assumptions of the present, such as women's current role or the hot political issues of the day. Once again, this ties into the idea that technology is easy but people are hard. There are many unintended effects of technology. These failures occur because the social impact of disruptive technologies is nearly impossible to predict. Home computers led to video games and the Internet led to the World Wide Web, spam, and viruses. It's easy to imagine a social change from any major technological change, but the number of possibilities is so great and the impact of unpredictable aspects of the human psyche so significant that correctly predicting which social changes will occur is much harder. Thus, while many of us believe in a future by watching sci-fi movies, it is actually difficult to achieve the exact same type of technology (and its effects) in real life. Furthermore, it is a reflection of the kind of lives we led in the past and less so of a prediction for the future.

Open source networks in forecasting: I really think that We are at a time where technological innovation is moving at an exponential rate. We simply cannot afford to have years to study the implications of every new emerging technology. An open source approach to technology assessment, particularly online public consultation, will provide the necessary speed and agility. They will be increasingly matter and be critical to proactive strategies and policies and competitiveness. It would also lower the costs of technology assessment. Many of those who participate in open source networks do so with the willingness to contribute their time based on the intangible rewards associated with solving tricky problems and the status achieved in doing so. These people do not request to be paid as in conventional technology assessment methods where companies pay consultants to analyse their company's technology.

Key Takeways:

1. We need to work backwards from the future instead of projecting from the present. We need to ask ourselves what we'd like to see in future and then assess what needs to be changed now in order to achieve that vision.
2. Roadmapping plays an important role in predicting the success of technology. What is more important is that we have the intellectual honesty to accept the need to change when we realise that something is not going to work. Only when we embrace our mistakes and start taking proactive steps to make those changes can we capture the full potential of our technologies.

Overall rating: 7/10

New & Emerging Technologies

Today's lesson covered the various kinds of new and emerging technologies that are sure to revolutionise the way we do things, perhaps even in the following years to come. We realise that there are so many creative and potentially groundbreaking ideas out there that are not receiving the attention that they deserve. We also learned about the 4 "Smarts": People, Ideas, Money and Alliances and Partnerships. People with the creativity and will to translate dreams into reality, ideas that can work, money to make the ideas happen and other people who have the necessary skills and expertise the innovator doesn't. Increasingly, we find that there are many social and ethical issues that will arise from the development and subsequent use of emerging technologies.

I think the idea of augmented reality is really fascinating and it's definitely the innovation I'm most looking forward to. Apart from the idea of facilitating our movement around as presented in the video, augmented reality has a lot of potential implications on education and learning. When students go for excursions or field trips, they will be instantly able to view all the information pertaining to their surroundings. By supplementing existing worlds rather than create new ones, students will be able to understand the real world in context, comprehend what they learn better and even remembered it better as they can put a name or some information to an object. As augmented reality is likely to manifest in low-cost infrastructures like mobile phones, students will be able to move learning outside the classroom and into the spaces they are familiar with. They will then be able to form connections with their surroundings without the facilitation of a teacher, or having to spend much time on research. Augmented reality will also benefit students who miss classes, especially location-based classes, as the information they learn is easily accessible to them when they go out into their surroundings.

Having said that, while augmented reality's application into learning will be phenomenal, it is important to drive home the fact that teachers still play a crucial part to the learning process. The use of augmented reality applications should be seen as a supplement to daily teachings and not a replacement for the teacher. To realise the full potential of augmented reality, we must address the issue that most augmented reality projects rely on customised hardware. There is thus a need to ensure that the information presented inside augmented reality is constantly up to date and reliable.

Regarding the question on the positive or negative impact of Artificial Intelligence, I feel that it is really subjective. On one hand, these robots can perform tasks that are dangerous, complex or stressful in place of humans, perform them more efficiently and more accurately. On the other hand, they will blur the lines between human and robot and give rise to a variety of ethical questions and redefine human (or even robot) rights. Whether it will be for the better or worse really depends on what we choose to use artificial intelligence for and how we use the knowledge. One of the readings for this lesson aptly points out the greatest difficulty in predicting the impacts of these new technologies. That is, once the technical and commercial feasibility of emerging technologies is demonstrated, subsequent developments are just as much in the hands of the users as in those of the innovator. So new technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Nanotechnology can affect society in ways not intended by those who created them. What the world really needs is wisdom. And once again, technology is easy and people are hard. Judging from all the ethical and social debate about the uses of new and emerging technologies despite their groundbreaking nature, I too truly believe that our technology has exceeded our humanity.

Key Takeaway: Many emerging technologies are within our reach and they hold many promises for a better and more convenient life. However, we still lack the capacity to deal with the potential ethical and social issues that may arise

Overall Rating: 7/10

Energy and World Change

Today we covered a topic that is so predominant, and so relevant in many aspects of our lives: Energy. Energy makes the world go round. Without it, we'd be left in complete darkness, frozen to death and unable to operate our vehicles. The next Industrial Revolution is clear to us all: We will see a transition from our current use of unsustainable energy resources to sustainable energy resources like renewables. Green technologies will work on increasing the energy efficiency, so that we can power more appliances per kilowatt of energy, and reducing the pollution of current technologies.

I personally don't like the idea of nuclear energy being a main source of energy in the future, especially in a tiny island in Singapore. No matter how many safety features a nuclear plant has installed, and no matter how many times a nuclear plant has been proven to be safe by scientists, I still feel that there is no guarantee of our safety when it comes to the use of radioactive material like uranium. As they always claim, science has many unexpected results. I, for one, wouldn't want to see what unexpected results lie ahead with nuclear energy. Yes, I agree that the two main nuclear disasters in the past were not due to the technology within the nuclear plants but rather, the people who constructed and operated the plants. The disaster at Chernobyl resulted because the soviet union tried to cut corners in construction to save money and the nuclear incident at Three Mile Island resulted from an error by the operator guy. Yes, the plant itself may be safe for use but human error is unavoidable, and there are many unforeseen circumstances out there that are not within our control. I definitely wouldn't want to take that chance of making a mistake while operating a nuclear plant because even the smallest percentage of error/accident can be culminate in the extermination of an entire town or even an entire state.  Another concern is the leakage of radioactive waste. Nuclear plants emit some radioactivity into the air and water during operation but these releases are regulated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. However, there have been examples in the past few years of unauthorised  release of radioactive waste into groundwater. Although very few have resulted in detectable increases in radioactivity in public drinking water, more problems could arise if this is uncorrected.

No doubt, nuclear energy would prove to be a very viable resource alternative once it can e proven to reach the same efficiency level as our current energy sources. However, I feel that it would defeat the purpose of using sustainable energy if we wipe ourselves in the process of using it.

Having said that, I am not completely against the idea of using nuclear energy. I just feel that they should not be a main energy resource especially for Singapore. If a nuclear plant was built in Singapore and an accident would happen, our entire island could be wiped out in seconds! Countries that should be exploring nuclear energy are those that have extensive land mass or mountainous regions and hence enough land to build buffer zones for the nuclear plants or have then built in caverns. Countries like the United States, especially, have these resources. For these countries, I feel that nuclear energy is viable because damage would be minimised even in the event of a massive nuclear explosion. Small countries like Singapore may not be so lucky. For Singapore, I think it would be more viable to invest in osmotic power and solar energy rather than nuclear plants, or buy nuclear energy from other countries.

Here's a video I found on a possible alternative source to uranium for nuclear power:

Discovery-News.com: Power From A Floating Metal Donut @ Yahoo! Video

Key Takeaways:

1. Short-step objectives vs Long Stretch objectives: There is value in both. Short-step objectives give people more confidence and inspires them to keep improving in small bites because they are easily achievable and realistic. Long stretch objectives, on the other hand, may seem like over-ambitious goals but they encourage a whole new perspective and way of doing things. It forces people to rethink and reinvent current methods in an entirely different way because we would be unable to achieve that target using these current methods.
2. In order to safeguard the rights of developing countries, developed countries should enter a mutual agreement with them when they decide to build energy plants in developing countries. This includes energy security for the developing countries (a guaranteed portion of the energy produced,), job security, revenue and training and expertise transfer to the locals.
3. It is important for developing countries to address short term issues like food and water supplies. However, they despite the lack of funds, developing countries should also invest in long-term issues like sustainable energy production because they would never progress if they choose not to do so. The challenge then is to get the right balance between the two.

Overall rating: 9/10