Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Today's lesson talked about the different methods by which we can forecast and assess technology. We learnt about technology road-mapping and PTAs. We also identified the various drivers of technology assessment. These include limited resources and the exponential growth of new technologies with potential world changing significance.

Just to add on to the point about cultural stickiness: I think many companies today are seeing the importance of taking cultural considerations into account. Anthropologists and ethnographers are finding it easier to find jobs with high-tech companies. I think these companies see the value of using the highly developed skills of anthropologists as observers to study how people live, work and use technology. These anthropologists can understand their users and find new products and markets the engineers never dreamed of. Intel for example, was looking into designing a computer chip that can withstand a blast from a deck hose. Even major technology universities are beginning to recognise the importance of considering cultural implications when forecasting the impact of a certain technology. The University of California, Irvine, and Georgia Tech are some examples of Universities that have included ethnographic training as part of their computer science degree programs.

Science fiction: Often, it is said that science fiction can predict the future and that we use science fiction as inspiration for the future. However, I think the sci-fi stories and scenarios tell us much more about our pasts and our present than it does about the future. The models used by Sci-fi writers have been extrapolated from the present situation using information gathered from past events, and they can be innately flawed because our human brain has its limitations. Even the computer models and mathematical formulas built using rules devised by human brains are equally subject to these shortcomings.  Furthermore, even if the authors' technical predictions are correct, the society is often wrong. Future societies inevitably display the unquestioned assumptions of the present, such as women's current role or the hot political issues of the day. Once again, this ties into the idea that technology is easy but people are hard. There are many unintended effects of technology. These failures occur because the social impact of disruptive technologies is nearly impossible to predict. Home computers led to video games and the Internet led to the World Wide Web, spam, and viruses. It's easy to imagine a social change from any major technological change, but the number of possibilities is so great and the impact of unpredictable aspects of the human psyche so significant that correctly predicting which social changes will occur is much harder. Thus, while many of us believe in a future by watching sci-fi movies, it is actually difficult to achieve the exact same type of technology (and its effects) in real life. Furthermore, it is a reflection of the kind of lives we led in the past and less so of a prediction for the future.

Open source networks in forecasting: I really think that We are at a time where technological innovation is moving at an exponential rate. We simply cannot afford to have years to study the implications of every new emerging technology. An open source approach to technology assessment, particularly online public consultation, will provide the necessary speed and agility. They will be increasingly matter and be critical to proactive strategies and policies and competitiveness. It would also lower the costs of technology assessment. Many of those who participate in open source networks do so with the willingness to contribute their time based on the intangible rewards associated with solving tricky problems and the status achieved in doing so. These people do not request to be paid as in conventional technology assessment methods where companies pay consultants to analyse their company's technology.

Key Takeways:

1. We need to work backwards from the future instead of projecting from the present. We need to ask ourselves what we'd like to see in future and then assess what needs to be changed now in order to achieve that vision.
2. Roadmapping plays an important role in predicting the success of technology. What is more important is that we have the intellectual honesty to accept the need to change when we realise that something is not going to work. Only when we embrace our mistakes and start taking proactive steps to make those changes can we capture the full potential of our technologies.

Overall rating: 7/10